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An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

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This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, local socio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.

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Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

338.9 CHR e

Publisher

Cham, Switzerland : Springer Cham., 2016

Collation

XXI, 160

Language

English

ISBN/ISSN

978-3-319-32261-2

Classification

338.9

Content Type

text

Media Type

computer

Carrier Type

online resource

Edition

Ed. 1

Subject(s)

Economic Growth
Quantitative Economics

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

Nicos Christodoulakis

Other Information

Cataloger

umi

Source

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-319-32261-2.pdf?pdf=button

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