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Perspectives on warm conveyor belts - sensitivities to ensemble configuration and the role for forecast error

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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.

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Publisher

Karlsruhe, Germany : KIT Scientific Publishing., 2023

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English

ISBN/ISSN

9783731512363

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NONE

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text

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computer

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online resource

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Subject(s)

Numerische Wettervorhersage
Vorhersageunsicherheit
Warmluftförderbänder
Numerical weather prediction
Forecast uncertainty
Warm conveyor belts

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Statement of Responsibility

Pickl, Moritz

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agus

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