In this book Simon Parsons describes qualitative methods for reasoning under uncertainty, "uncertainty" being a catch-all term for various types of imperfect information. The advantage of qualitative methods is that they do not require precise numerical information. Instead, they work with abstractions such as interval values and information about how values change. The author does not invent c…
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of in…