Buku akses terbuka ini menyajikan perkembangan baru di bidang peramalan demografis (Kependudukan), mencakup kematian, kesuburan, dan migrasi. Untuk setiap komponen, metode baru untuk meramalkannya diperkenalkan. Lebih lagi, instrumen untuk evaluasi peramalan disediakan. Model Bayesian, model nonparametrik, pendekatan kohort, penggalian pendapat ahli, dan evaluasi ramalan probabilistik adalah be…
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forec…